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Europe Insights

European elections: a pivotal time
07 May 2019
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    Key takeaways:

    • Due to take place on 23-26 May, the European Parliamentary (EP) elections are approaching fast. The final results will be communicated in the evening of 26 May
    • At the time of writing, if polls are correct, the two mainstream EP groups will probably lose their overall majority, making for a more fragmented European Parliament. The EP elections may have some implications both for the European Union’s (EU) policy orientation and national politics
    • The market impact has been limited so far. Markets have mostly already priced in Italian political risks: 10Y bond yield spreads have started to widen again since end March, with no contagion effects on the euro periphery
    • The situation is however very fluid. National parties have registered their candidates and voting lists, for the 3 May deadline
    • The official campaign will not start before mid-May, with the electoral documents sent to voters several days before the elections