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Priced recovery

In the latest House Views our Chief Strategist, Joe Little, and his colleagues shine a light on the three questions institutional partners are asking.
20 April 2021
    Download the full reportPDF, 792.71KB

    Key takeaways

    1. How is the recovery going, and how is that reflected in market prices?

      The global economy is in a restoration phase, which looks durable but is still uneven, and much of the good news is priced in

    2. Will there be a material rise in inflation?

      Stronger inflationary pressure is more possible than at any time since the GFC, but is still improbable

    3. What are the potential investment opportunities?

      A cyclical tilt to value in equities makes sense, while the main themes of low-for-long are still in place: a structural tilt to Asia and Emerging Markets reflecting the secular shift in global growth prospects; and a continuing case for the illiquidity and complexity premia, as well as the diversification properties, of Alternatives
    Our essentially benign outlook is based on both fiscal and monetary policy continuing to support the recovery. However, unusual uncertainty about the pandemic and the key economic variables are complicating the setting of policy.
    Michael Cross, Vice Chair, Global Institutional Business