Mid-Year Outlook 2024
Playing the Yield
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The increasing influence of geopolitical factors on markets signals a shift to a new era with more volatile inflation and lower potential growth. |
We explore:
 Since the start of the year, inflation data has re-accelerated. Hotter inflation prints are due to the services sector, especially shelter costs. But leading indicators point to a resumption of disinflation trends through the rest of 2024. |
 Economic power is shifting to Asia and emerging markets. Tariffs and protectionist measures are on the rise. Economic statecraft has become the new normal. How can investors assess geopolitical risk in the current environment? |
 Emerging markets have been impressively resilient to the higher-for-longer interest rate environment, China growth challenges, and the stronger dollar in 2024. For investors, the new multi-polar world means that being granular in geographies will be more important. |
The Global Mid-Year Outlook 2024 Webinar
Growth is broadening out and inflation is unsticking itself. Profits are recovering and investment markets look exuberant. But, in H2, investors will have to contend with some economic cooling in the US as well as election and geopolitical uncertainty. Where should investors have conviction now?
Joe Little, Xavier Baraton, and Joanna Munro review the global investment outlook and offer their expert conclusions.
More Experts’ Views at Mid-Year
Discover our Mid-Year Outlook Report
A ‘soft-ish landing’ remains our baseline scenario envisioning a moderate economic slowdown that avoids a severe recession. This means that inflation, which has been sticky, ‘unsticks’ itself. This is why we remain cautiously optimistic but think “playing the yield“ is the right strategy now.
A combination of cooling demand, weaker profits, modest rate cuts, and higher term premia could be a tricky situation for risk markets to navigate. We opt for a focus on fixed income and prioritise alternative sources of portfolio resilience.
We introduce three key themes to consider:
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Real role for real assets |
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Return of fixed income |
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Emerging market leadership |
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