Investment Monthly
Summary
House View
- We expect a “role reversal” this year in areas of the macro, policy, and market environment, with US exceptionalism fading, and growth converging in the west. Global market performance will be dependent on profits growth
- The new year rally concentrated in Asia and other emerging markets shows a “broadening out” of market leadership amid better EM corporate profits. EMs also look to be structurally safer and less volatile
- With government bonds potentially less reliable as a portfolio hedge, investors should manage volatility by seeking to “diversify the diversifiers” with bond substitutes like hedge funds and private markets
Macro Outlook
- US growth has been robust, but there are some imbalances. K-shaped dynamics are in play: with AI capex booming, but a cooling labour market and tariff-driven price rises proving to be headwinds to consumers
- We expect more balanced, trend-like US growth this year. Tariffs and AI capex still pose upside risks to inflation
- Geopolitical events have been in focus in early 2026, and are expected to remain an important influence on the economic environment and markets
- Supportive macro policies and tech/industrial competitiveness aid China’s growth resilience, but economic imbalances remain a key challenge
Policy Outlook
- The US Fed is in wait-and-see mode as it assesses the impact on the economy of trade tariffs, immigration policy, and the AI investment boom
- Kevin Warsh’s nomination as the next Fed Chair resolves a key question for investors but the impact on policy is not clear cut
- With EM Asia approaching the end of its rate cutting cycle, governments have space to use fiscal policy to respond to growth disappointments
- China will continue its targeted and calibrated policy support to aid domestic demand, alongside reform efforts focused on strategic objectives such as technology innovation and self-reliance, and economic rebalancing
Scenarios
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The value of investments and any income from them can go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amount originally invested. The views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. This information shouldn’t be considered as a recommendation to invest in the country or sector shown. This information shouldn’t be considered as a recommendation to invest in the country or sector shown. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target.
Source: HSBC Asset Management as at February 2026.
House View
As US exceptionalism continues to fade, market leadership can continue to broaden out, particularly to emerging and frontier markets, which are becoming structurally safer and less volatile. Asia is also well placed to benefit from the AI boom. And with conventional diversifiers less reliable, portfolios need alternative sources of resilience
- Equities – Re-ratings drove global returns last year, but profits growth will be increasingly important in 2026. Assuming these are delivered, there is scope for a further broadening out of performance beyond US large-cap tech to other sectors and regions, particularly emerging markets
- Government bonds – Bond yields are expected to remain range-bound amid inflation risks, fiscal concerns, and growth imbalances. EM local currency bonds benefit from lower inflation, stronger growth and improved debt sustainability
- Corporate bonds – Investment grade credit spreads remain tight, but strong technicals, healthy balance sheets, and a positive profits outlook are supportive. We maintain a defensive stance with a preference for higher quality credits
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The level of yield is not guaranteed and may rise or fall in the future. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and not guaranteed in any way. The views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. This information shouldn’t be considered as a recommendation to invest in the country or sector shown. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. House view represents a >12-month investment view across major asset classes in our portfolios.
Source: HSBC Asset Management as at February 2026.
Asset class performance at a glance
January saw some exceptionally strong returns across global stock markets, especially in emerging economies, as the broadening out trade continued. Some volatility in longer-dated bond yields reflected uncertainty over future rate cuts and fiscal concerns. A major rally in precious metals saw sharp reversals at month-end
- Government bonds – Sovereign bond yields saw volatility and divergence, with 10-year yields rising in Japan and the US, but moderating across the eurozone. Investors continue to weigh an uncertain fiscal, inflation, and growth outlook
- Equities – Stocks saw blistering gains in parts of Asia and Latam amid a weaker US dollar and rally in commodity prices. There were also strong positive moves in Japan, the UK, and US small-caps. India continued to underperform
- Alternatives – Gold and silver prices led a remarkable rally in precious metals, before declining sharply late in the month. Industrial metals prices were also strong. Oil prices strengthened on geopolitical tensions. Crypto prices slumped
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Past performance does not predict future returns. The level of yield is not guaranteed and may rise or fall in the future. This information shouldn’t be considered as a recommendation to invest in the country or sector shown. The views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice.
Source: Bloomberg, all data above as at close of business 31 January 2026 in USD, total return, month-to-date terms. Note: Asset class performance is represented by different indices. Global Equities: MSCI ACWI Net Total Return USD Index. Global Emerging Market Equities: MSCI Emerging Market Net Total Return USD Index. Corporate Bonds: Bloomberg Barclays Global HY Total Return Index value unhedged. Bloomberg Barclays Global IG Total Return Index unhedged. Government bonds: Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Treasuries Total Return Index. JP Morgan EMBI Global Total Return local currency. Commodities and real estate: Gold Spot $/OZ, Other commodities: S&P GSCI Total Return CME. Real Estate: FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Global Index TR USD. Crypto: Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index.
Macro scenarios
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Market scenarios
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The commentary and analysis presented in this document reflect the opinion of HSBC Asset Management on the markets, according to the information available to date. They do not constitute any kind of commitment from HSBC Asset Management. Consequently, HSBC Asset Management will not be held responsible for any investment or disinvestment decision taken on the basis of the commentary and/or analysis in this document. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target.
Source: HSBC Asset Management, February 2026.
Economic outlook
Fed in wait-and-see mode
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Past performance does not predict future returns. Any views expressed were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. While any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Asset Management Limited accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. This information shouldn't be considered as a recommendation to invest in the specific country mentioned. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target.
Source: HSBC Asset Management, consensus numbers from Bloomberg, February 2026.
Events to look out for in H1 2026
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The views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. Past performance does not predict future returns.
Source: HSBC Asset Management, January 2026.
Investment Views
Asset class positioning
House view represents a >12-month investment view across major asset classes in our portfolios.
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The level of yield is not guaranteed and may rise or fall in the future. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. The views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. This information shouldn’t be considered as a recommendation to invest in the country or sector shown. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target.
Source: HSBC Asset Management as at February 2026.
On Top of Investors’ Minds
What have been the eye-catching themes in stock markets this year?
First, is that the S&P 500 is delivering bumper profits again in Q4 2025 earnings season. Year-on-year growth for Q4 was pencilled-in at 8 per cent, but that figure has already risen closer to 12 per cent and could rise further. Among the surprises has been a stellar pick-up in 2026 profits expectations for the Materials sector.
Second, is that mega-cap tech and AI stocks – which have driven US profits and price gains for three years – are diverging a bit. The sector still dominates the broad profits picture, but investors are being picky, and some stocks have slumped after disappointing the market. There are also signs that some software firms could suffer because of AI, as well as persistent concerns about stretched valuations, high concentration, and a potential bubble in AI stocks given uncertainty about when vast capex investments will pay-off. Overall, it has left the sector lagging the broader index this year.
Finally, last year’s broadening out of market leadership is continuing – both within the US (notably to small-caps and value) and to emerging markets and Europe. Outside the US, a pick-up in momentum has been helped by a weaker US dollar, but valuation discounts, better fundamentals, and policy support are also playing a role.
S&P 500 year-on-year expected earnings growth
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Why have emerging market stocks been so strong in early 2026?
Emerging market stocks have got off to an exceptionally strong start in 2026. In some ways, it’s a case of history repeating. This time last year, a sharp decline in the US dollar was under way, and EM stocks were strengthening just as US stocks were fading. After the volatility around April’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff surprise, EM markets went on to outperform the US for the full year.
Amid further signs that global investors have cooled towards dollar assets, the EM momentum trend is accelerating. But unlike last year, there is more to this outperformance than EMs just being lucky. Improvements in both regional structural stories and company fundamentals are playing a role too.
Korea and Taiwan have extended last year’s world-beating gains as the global AI build-out boosts the outlook for tech and semiconductor names. Meanwhile in Brazil, structural reforms and the prospect of lower rates is providing relief to the fiscal outlook. The mining sector has benefit from the current commodities rally.
Overall, EMs are proving again in 2026 that they can be both lucky and good – with the tailwind of dollar weakness acting as a catalyst to attractive structural stories and improving fundamentals and profits.
MSCI Emerging Market index performance relative to MSCI US index
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What does a Kevin Warsh-led Fed mean for markets?
President Trump’s decision to back Kevin Warsh as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve was a bit of a surprise. However, Fed rate expectations and US Treasury yields have been stable, suggesting investors have placed greater weight on other factors when determining the policy and rate outlook.
It is important to remember that US monetary policy is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), not just the Chair. At the margin, the Fed Chair could push through policy changes if the data are ambiguous and FOMC is split, but it would be difficult for any Fed Chair to force through changes in policy that are not broadly supported by the economic data.
Warsh has been regarded as a policy hawk during his career. However, more recently, he has focussed on the disinflationary impact of AI, which could allow for lower rates despite a strong economy. Warsh has also advocated for a much smaller Fed balance sheet, But again, this would require committee approval, and needs to consider the impact on liquidity conditions.
The pick of a perceived “orthodox” candidate may temper concerns over the erosion of Fed independence and policy rates being cut too far, allowing runaway inflation. January’s US dollar and gold volatility reflect this. But with policy uncertainty still high, the US dollar's role as a reliable haven asset is still questionable.
How many rate cuts from Fed, ECB, BoE in 2026?
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How could the US midterm elections impact markets?
Historically, the second year of a US presidential term tends to be a tricky one for markets. It’s often the weakest for real stock returns in the S&P 500, thanks to the uncertainty that midterm elections bring. Investors don’t like surprises; unexpected policy shifts and questions about the economic outlook often weigh on risk appetite during this time.
We also know that almost every midterm election has resulted in the incumbent president's party losing seats in the House of Representatives. If Republicans lose their slim House majority this year, it could result in a Republican president and a Democrat-controlled House: a political gridlock scenario. The good news is that markets often welcome this. A divided government means a lower chance of large policy changes, which tends to calm volatility and boost stocks post-election.
Nonetheless, in an environment where AI enthusiasm persists but there are risks of episodic volatility caused by high policy and economic uncertainty, high tech sector valuations, and elevated geopolitical concerns, the impact of the US midterms on market sentiment is also worth monitoring.
Average annual real equity price returns in a US presidential term
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The views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and not guaranteed in any way. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. This information shouldn’t be considered as a recommendation to invest in the country or sector shown.
Source: HSBC Asset Management as at February 2026.
Where are the safe havens?
Amid January's geopolitical turmoil, we saw echoes of last April’s “Liberation Day” market action: US stocks declining in lockstep with US Treasuries and the US dollar. This is important. It provides further evidence that traditional portfolio diversifiers may struggle to perform as expected, particularly when US policy decisions – whether it be around trade, the Fed, and foreign relations – are driving investor caution.
For investors looking to hedge against further market turbulence in 2026 we think it makes sense to look elsewhere for protection. Gold and the Swiss franc, for example, performed very well in January. And with concerns about the health of US public finances overlaying the geopolitics, high-quality corporate bonds may be structurally less risky. Meanwhile, private markets continue to offer a route to dampen portfolio volatility and gain exposure to Fed cuts. And amid elevated dispersion and macroeconomic volatility, hedge funds are displaying uncorrelated returns.
However, recent sharp moves in gold serve as a reminder that no single safe haven is flawless. These fluctuations underscore the importance of “diversifying the diversifiers” – adopting an active, multi-asset approach that captures uncorrelated performance across a broader spectrum of assets.
S&P 500 daily versus US dollar index (DXY) daily return
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What impact is geopolitics expected to play in markets this year?
Geopolitical events have been in focus in early 2026, with investors digesting news on Venezuela, Greenland, Iran, and Ukraine. But commodity and investment markets have remained mostly unperturbed. Oil prices – which tend to be a key channel for geopolitical events to shock the macro system – have been stable. And global stocks have enjoyed a solid start to the year, with Asian indices reaching record highs.
This contrast between elevated uncertainty and calm markets seems puzzling, but makes sense in the context of a good global growth outlook, and an expected “coming together” of global profits growth in 2026. But as in 2025, we think geopolitical events will be a key influence on markets this year. That’s important because despite the bullish mood, a continuation of last year’s “bull market in almost everything” depends on good fundamental news being delivered. With some asset classes arguably “priced for perfection”, any burst of adverse news could stoke volatility.
Currently, we remain moderately pro-risk but wary that episodic volatility is possible. A complex economic and geopolitical environment means a changed playbook for investors too. That means re-assessing the old stereotypes about emerging markets and using new diversifiers to secure portfolio resilience.
Decomposing 2025 stock market returns
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The views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and not guaranteed in any way. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. This information shouldn’t be considered as a recommendation to invest in the country or sector shown.
Source: HSBC Asset Management as at February 2026.
Market Data
January 2026
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Past performance does not predict future returns. The level of yield is not guaranteed and may rise or fall in the future. This information shouldn’t be considered as a recommendation to invest in the country or sector shown.
Sources: Bloomberg, HSBC Asset Management. Data as at close of business 31 January 2026. (*) Indices expressed as total returns. All others are price returns.
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Past performance does not predict future returns. The level of yield is not guaranteed and may rise or fall in the future. This information shouldn’t be considered as a recommendation to invest in the country or sector shown.
Sources: Bloomberg, HSBC Asset Management. Data as at close of business 31 January 2026. Total return includes income from dividends and interest as well as appreciation or depreciation in the price of an asset over the given period.
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Past performance does not predict future returns. The level of yield is not guaranteed and may rise or fall in the future. This information shouldn’t be considered as a recommendation to invest in the country or sector shown.
Sources: Bloomberg, HSBC Asset Management. Data as at close of business 31 January 2026.
Important information
Basis of Views and Definitions of ‘Asset class positioning’ tables
- Views are based on regional HSBC Asset Management Asset Allocation meetings held throughout January 2026, HSBC Asset Management’s long-term expected return forecasts which were generated as at 31 December 2025, our portfolio optimisation process and actual portfolio positions
- Icons: ↑ View on this asset class has been upgraded – No change ↓ View on this asset class has been downgraded
- Underweight, overweight and neutral classifications are the high-level asset allocations tilts applied in diversified, typically multi-asset portfolios, which reflect a combination of our long-term valuation signals, our shorter-term cyclical views and actual positioning in portfolios. The views are expressed with reference to global portfolios. However, individual portfolio positions may vary according to mandate, benchmark, risk profile and the availability and riskiness of individual asset classes in different regions
- “Overweight” implies that, within the context of a well-diversified typically multi-asset portfolio, and relative to relevant internal or external benchmarks, HSBC Global Asset Management has (or would have) a positive tilt towards the asset class
- “Underweight” implies that, within the context of a well-diversified typically multi-asset portfolio, and relative to relevant internal or external benchmarks, HSBC Global Asset Management has (or would) have a negative tilt towards the asset class
- “Neutral” implies that, within the context of a well-diversified typically multi-asset portfolio, and relative to relevant internal or external benchmarks HSBC Global Asset Management has (or would have) neither a particularly negative or positive tilt towards the asset class
- For global investment-grade corporate bonds, the underweight, overweight and neutral categories for the asset class at the aggregate level are also based on high-level asset allocation considerations applied in diversified, typically multi-asset portfolios. However, USD investment-grade corporate bonds and EUR and GBP investment-grade corporate bonds are determined relative to the global investment-grade corporate bond universe
- For Asia ex Japan equities, the underweight, overweight and neutral categories for the region at the aggregate level are also based on high-level asset allocation considerations applied in diversified, typically multi-asset portfolios. However, individual country views are determined relative to the Asia ex Japan equities universe as of 31 December 2025
- Similarly, for EM government bonds, the underweight, overweight and neutral categories for the asset class at the aggregate level are also based on high-level asset allocation considerations applied in diversified, typically multi-asset portfolios. However, EM Asian Fixed income views are determined relative to the EM government bonds (hard currency) universe as of 31 Janauary 2025
This information shouldn’t be considered as a recommendation to invest in the country or sector shown. The views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and not guaranteed in any way. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against loss.
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The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amount originally invested. The performance figures contained in this document relate to past performance, which should not be seen as an indication of future returns. Future returns will depend, inter alia, on market conditions, investment manager’s skill, risk level and fees. Where overseas investments are held the rate of currency exchange may cause the value of such investments to go down as well as up. Investments in emerging markets are by their nature higher risk and potentially more volatile than those inherent in some established markets. Economies in emerging markets generally are heavily dependent upon international trade and, accordingly, have been and may continue to be affected adversely by trade barriers, exchange controls, managed adjustments in relative currency values and other protectionist measures imposed or negotiated by the countries and territories with which they trade. These economies also have been and may continue to be affected adversely by economic conditions in the countries and territories in which they trade.
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